Monday, October 14, 2013

Chicken Mafia causes another disaster

There is a full-blown crisis in the Canadian chicken industry.  Sound the alarms.  This crisis threatens the loss of 56,000 Canadian jobs, and $6.5 Billion GDP.

Spent fowl imports to Canada are probably being used to defraud Canadians, and destroy the Canadian chicken industry.

Spent fowl are female chickens that have spent an entire year laying eggs, are getting worn out, egg production is dropping, and are then only commercially suitable for making chicken soup, pet food, compost fertilizer, or similar fates such as defrauding Canadian consumers.

Fraudulent spent fowl imports are being used to escape paying the 285% import tariffs for broiler chicken at the Canadian border.


If the current trend of fraudulent spent fowl imports continues, these imports are forecast to double again from the current 16.9% of the domestic broiler production, to 33.76% in just 5.3 years from now, and will reach 50% of Canada's domestic broiler production in just 7 years from now, and 100% of domestic chicken production on or before June 18, 2023 (9.68 years from today).

The data shows a double exponential rate of increase (ie. an exponential of an exponential rate of growth), with a correlation coefficient of 90.48% (ie. the double exponential equation explains 90.48% of the year-to-year variation in the data, with just 9.52% random error).

That means that Canada's entire domestic chicken industry will be wiped out as of 2023, as all the needed chicken will be fraudulently imported into Canada, right under the noses of Chicken Farmers of Canada ("CFC"), the organization who is supposed to be in charge of chicken for all of Canada .

Of course, the Canadian industry for growing and processing chicken, and the growing of grains and making chicken feed for those domestic chickens will likely collapse long before those doomsday dates are reached, due to massive loss of both market share and cash flow.

Note that this dangerous trend is likely created by cannibalism from within the Chicken Mafia (ie. all those who support, use, and benefit from the monopolistic chicken supply management system).  Pure greed likely means that some members of the Chicken Mafia aren't satisfied with a mere 300% markup on chicken in Canada that consumers are forced to pay.  The Chicken Mafia wants more and more profits.  It is likely more than one Chicken Mafia members who are eating Canada's chicken supply management system alive from the inside out, just like in the movie Alien.

Alien monster emerging from inside Astronaut Kane (played by John Hurt) in the 1979 move "Alien"

If something isn't done soon, Canada's entire value-added chicken industry will suffer a similar fate to that of Astronaut Kane, as shown in the above video clip; a sudden, scary, violent, painful, and gruesome death.

Will CFC attack its own members of the Chicken Mafia, so as to save the overall system?  So far, CFC has allowed it to continue.

While Small Flockers don't like the tyranny and oppression of the current chicken supply management system, and we call for dramatic changes, this current crisis isn't our doing, is not what we had in mind, and we do not support letting the current crisis trend to continue.

Somebody needs to do something, and quick.  Perhaps the decades of oppression by the Chicken Mafia has found an outlet, and it is already too late to make amends.

Unfortunately, CFC now wrings their hands in worry and makes pretty brochures about the crisis they created by delay and indifference.

The above graph is taken from a CFC brochure they published as of Sept. 16, 2013.  In a previous Blog posting, I showed how this emerging crisis was detectable back in 2003, but CFC was asleep at the switch, and only realized the trend existed in 2010; which is 7 years behind the times.

Google Internet Search terms for Canada (see graph above) show no interest whatsoever in this topic between 2004 and today.  Shocking and sad!

So that's it? For ten years the problem is allowed to fester, and all CFC can do is produce a 6 page pamphlet on this crisis; a crisis that can and will destroy the entire Canadian chicken industry?

Rip Van Winkle wasn't asleep that long.  Incompetence and negligence by CFC needs to be investigated on this issue.

Perhaps CFC should be taking specific action.  If they don't know what to do, perhaps they should ask somebody who does know.  It appears that all they have done is complain to Minister Ritz, then sit back and wait for a solution from the government.

I find CFC's inaction or glacial pace to be hard to understand.  Talk about fiddling while Rome burns!

You should also be aware of the increasing danger in the Canadian system for supply management of chicken from other sources.  It appears to be approaching the breaking point in multiple area, from stressor originating from multiple sources (see )

Today, when a truck of chicken arrives at the US-Canada border, Canadian Border Services Agency ("CBSA") cannot take action on a truck that contains 51% spent chicken that is mixed in with 49% broilers unless they have a scientifically sound, objective method for determining what is a spent fowl and what is a plump young broiler.  I suggest the following 5 step action plan can be in place within 6 months or less if we get somebody competent on the job (ie. not Chicken Farmers of Canada):
  1. Secretly purchase a truckload of 100% verified and certified USA spent chicken , and a truckload of verified and certified USA broilers ( in parts, whole fresh, and frozen).  Statistical analysis of the meat is done to characterize it, and identify the factor(s) that provide the maximum confidence interval for differentiating between spent fowl and plump broilers (eg. weight, density, conductivity, skin/meat durometer, pH, water activity, etc.).  I guess that the weight differential should be adequate, but the other data can act as an insurance policy.
  2. Repeat the purchase and testing from different suppliers and different processing plants so as to build a sufficient database.
  3. The database and testing method is verified for repeatability, reproducibility, precision, accuracy, and predictability through a double blind test of the draft method, data is statistically analyzed for prediction efficiency.
  4. CBSA personnel are trained on the certified testing method.  Method is implemented at all borders.
  5. Random samples are taken by CBSA for all trucks of alleged spent chicken imports into Canada.  Based on these samples, the % spent chicken in the shipment is estimated, and CBSA applies the TRQ or other tariff to the balance of the shipment.  If the importer is able to present sufficient objective evidence to prove a different % spent is in the shipment, then this other data will be considered by CBSA prior to assessing the duty owed.

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