Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Brave New World

What would Ontario's chicken world look like if the mill stone was removed from around the neck of Small Flockers?

Would it all end with the bankruptcy and ruin of every commercial, quota-bearing chicken farmer?  Would people in Ontario starve due to a lack of chicken?  Would the sun rise the next morning?  Just how bad could it get?

Using our infamous HHI (yes, again), I did the present case, and some future scenarios.  Let's take a look.

Today    There are about 13,000 Small Flock Poultry Farmers in Ontario.  The average small flocker raises 69 birds per year.  Here is the total market share (quota + small flockers) for Ontario:

We can see that the Small Flockers add little to nothing; neither to the market share, nor to the HHI scores.

Case II:  Small Flockers raise 300 birds each for sale  They will raise some birds for themselves, but everybody suddenly becomes totally committed to local food production and raise the new maximum (ie. 300 meat birds per farmer).  Here is what we would get:


Now the %HHI increases from 0.01% to 0.18%; better but still insignificant.  The mega giant quota holders still dominate the scene.

Case III: Small Flockers raise 2,000 birds each for farm gate sale   IN this scenario, we have the following results:

Now we're talking!  Finally, Small Flockers have a significant presence in the Ontario chicken market.  Small Flockers are about the same as 5 of the other size categories for quota farmers.  The %HHI for the mega farmers is reduced from 63.84% to 58.92%.  The overall HHI score is reduced to 83.9% of its former value.  Nobody dies.  The world doesn't come to an end.

Can't we all just get along, recognize and appreciate the unique roles that each of us can contribute to the greater good of the public?

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