Friday, December 27, 2013

Ontario's Chicken Election

Will the upcoming Ontario election be decided by the chicken issue?
Tim Hudak, Ontario MPP, Leader of the ON PC Party. 
Hudak is nose to nose with more than the Ontario Liberals

In a previous Blog posting (see Enough is Enough! Supreme Court has Ruled), I suggested that a small shift of just 6% in voters intentions could shift the popular vote in favor of the PC's, and a 10% shift if the NDP are to be in the lead.

In a more recent poll on Nov. 26, 2013, Forum Research says Ontario voters favor the PC with 38%, Liberals 32%, NDP with 23%, the Greens with 6%, and all others 1%.

Due to the distribution of votes in the various ridings, this is estimated to produce 47 (43.9%) seats for the PC, 44 for the Liberals, and 16 for the NDP; which is another minority government.

In speaking with Torstar News Services, Forum Research said that the PC would need up to 42% of the popular vote for an outright win; equating to an 8% gain in popular votes.  While it doesn't seem like much, the PC's have failed to do it, in spite of numerous attempts over time.  PC's are heavy winners of rural votes, but lack the urban centres where most of the votes are.  Could #ChickenMafia be the issue that launches the PC's forward to the finish line?

Perhaps the PC's need a secret weapon, a #ChickenMafia killer to ignite the citizens and rally them all together against a shared and mutually beneficial issue, reducing the power and oppression of the #ChickenMafia.


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