Bird Flu Disaster

Can we learn something from the recent and on-going Bird Flu disaster?  I believe we can learn that CAFO commercial chicken factories are defective, corrupt, and biosecurity disasters.

Bird Flu Risk for CAFO factory farms is 77 times higher than for small flock farms
How do we explain this?

In Ontario, Chicken Farmers of Ontario ("CFO") reported in 2014 there is 1,138 commercial CAFO mega chicken factories, but 15,500 small flock chicken farmers.  In Canada, there is about 2,700 CAFO commercial chicken farmers, but we estimate there are far more than 60,000 small flock poultry farmers.


The largest Ontario flock in CAFO (Confined Animal Feeding Operations) factory barns is around 200,000 birds.  However, a small flock can be just 2 birds.  In Ontario, half of the small flocks have less than 57 birds according to CFO's data.


According to USDA data, 85% of the Bird Flu infections occur for CAFO factory farms.  It is suggested the same ratio holds for Ontario and Canada.

As of today, USDA estimates that roughly 10 percent of egg-laying hens and 6 percent of live turkeys in the U.S. have died because of the virus

We will assume the the number of flocks that could be infected, multiplied by the Probability of infection, gives us the number of infected farms.  This is in accordance with typical disease spread modeling.  We assumed that 1 Small Flock becomes infected.  This indicates that 5.7 CAFO flocks will become infected, producing an 85% infection ratio for CAFO.

In spite of these flock ratios of between 13 to 22 to 1 (ie. an average of 17.5 small flocks for every commercial chicken factory in Ontario), the CAFO mega chicken factories have 85% of the Bird Flu outbreaks, a 1:5 ratio.

With a 17:1 flock ratio but a 1:5 Bird Flu infection ratio, it appears that the commercial CAFO factory farms have an Bird Flu infection rate 77.18 times higher than what the small flocks have. 

How do we explain this 77 time higher probability that CAFO chicken factories become infected?

It may be easy to assume that God has smitten the CAFO chicken farmer and Chicken Supply Management with a plague as retribution for their past sins.

However, there is an easier, and less judgmental answer.  The easiest explanation it that the CAFO chicken factories are defective, corrupt, and biosecurity disasters.

Bad, Bad Bird Flu

Avian influenza ("AI") has been striking flocks across North America.  Why is this happening?  Where is the source of risks that cause these outbreaks?

On Better Farming website, some anonymous postings have accused small flock and backyard chickens for spreading the avian influenza infection, pointing to "many" small flocks with  AI.

The USDA has a web page listing the site of the recent AI outbreaks.   Downloading the listing and doing some statistical analysis of the data, we get the following information.

Table 1:   Bird Flu statistics for USA

There are two major categories for bird flu infections; commercial and backyard. For some, the data on the extent of the infections has not yet been received.  These data are for the ones for which the impact is already known as of 2015/04/23.

A total of 71 flocks have been infected; 60 commercial flocks, and 11 backyard flocks.  That means that 84.5% of all the US infections are at commercial establishments.

Of course, the commercial flocks are huge CAFO's (Concentrated Animal Feed Operations), with many thousands of birds.  Of all the birds infected, 99.9% of them are commercial chicken factory birds.

Bird Flu Risk:  CAFO of Small Flockers?

In the 2012 US agricultural census, there were 198,272 commercial egg laying poultry farms, and 32,935 commercial  broiler farms, for a total of 231,207 commercial poultry farms in USA.  While that is a huge number of commercial farms, the number of flocks at small flock farms and backyard chickens is orders of magnitude larger.  Why then, are 85% of the disease outbreaks coming from commercial operations that are less than 10% of the total number of US flocks?

I suggest it's because the CAFO chicken factories are a hotbed of disease and unhealthy birds; a powder keg waiting for a wayward & negligent bird flu match to be tossed in.  CAFO's are a Bird Flu powder keg because CAFO's are based on biologically improper techniques and processes.  When you have chicken factory coop congestion, and a large number of birds than mill around amongst all others, any infection will quickly spread to most other birds.  The more birds infected, the greater the risk of infecting the remaining birds.  The infection spreads like wildfire in a CAFO chicken factory.

It has been shown that Bird Flu can be transmitted by air through aerosols and dust.  That fact applies to all the birds inside the CAFO factory barn, as well as the farm's other CAFO factory barns that are right beside the infected barn.  It also means other CAFO factory farms that are downwind of the infected farm.

Once infected, a CAFO often spreads the infection to neighbouring CAFO's, in spite of all their pontification, boasting, and false bravado about their super duper biohazard isolation procedures and quarantines.  Their questionable quarantines are like a leaky sieve; the infection easily passes through to the next CAFO victim, time & again.

Small Flockers are generally based on better methods, so the get infected at a significantly lower incidence rate.  If a small flock farm happens to get infected in spite of protection from better techniques, the infection tends to stay isolated, rather than becoming the well or vector from which the disease is spread to other flocks.

WorldWatch Institute reports

Sustainable farming advocates insist that backyard chickens are less of a concern than factory-farmed poultry, which the Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production has said poses serious risks of transmitting animal-borne diseases to human populations, especially due to the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance.

"When it comes to bird flu, diverse small-scale poultry farming is the solution, not the problem," the international sustainable agriculture organization GRAIN concluded in a 2006 report.

Chicken Farmers of Ontario ("CFO") also reported that Ontario's small flock poultry farmers generally respected bio-security precautions and protocols.  See Blog posting "Are Small Flockers competent to care for live birds?" and CFO's poster which absolves Small Flockers from being the scapegoat for biosecurity risks.  It is interesting that CFO has subsequently removed that poster from their website.  I wonder why?

Alerting Small Flockers to Bird Flu Risks

As of Feb. 23, 2015 CFO declares it will communicate biosecurity risks & events to Small Flockers when there is a biosecurity alert or disease outbreak.  This is a major sea change for CFO, from their previous policy of dichotomy (or schizophrenic) polarization of ignoring Small Flockers, or harassing them.  However, here we are in an outbreak, and we have a communication blackout from CFO to Small Flockers.

It is misguided for me to judge others by my personal beliefs and standards.  However, I suggest it is reasonable to judge CFO by CFO's own standards and principles.

The only thing that CFO, Hatcheries, and the Egg Board has done is a simple, token effort of posting alerts on their Small Flock website, leaving it to Small Flockers to check back there on a daily basis to discover if there are any alerts.

Is it reasonable to expect 15,000 small flock farmers in Ontario to check that website on a daily basis?

CFO has the contact info for all Small Flockers in their CFO database.  CFO sends email alerts to their 1,400 millionaire members on a regular basis.  Is it reasonable for CFO to push a button to send an email alert to each & every Small Flocker, alerting them of incidents, recommendations, and changing risks?

On that basis, CFO gets an F- grade.

However, Ecological Farmers of Ontario ("EFAO") sent a Bird Flu alert email out to all Small Flockers listed on their database.

Active alert communications by EFAO are far superior than the passive, limp communication efforts by CFO.

Therefore, SFPFC sends out two communiques:

• A big Thank-you ! for the enlightened concern and voluntary, helpful effort of EFAO.

• An insulting raspberry to the semi-silence of CFO, when they should be communicating and alerting Small Flockers on an active basis.

Homegrown Ontario

Local food is becoming a hot topic.  Ontario has its Local Food Act, and is slowly adjusting local (ie. Ontario grown) food preferences for all public institutions in Ontario.

Leading the way, Ontario Pork Producers’ Marketing Board (OPPMB), the Ontario Veal Association (OVA) and the Ontario Sheep Marketing Agency (OSMA) came together to form Homegrown Ontario in 2006.  OIPP gives a detailed account, and is now the owner of this important trademark.  Unfortunately, I haven't seem too many of these logos at retail meat counters.

In 2005, spouses Smith & MacKinnon started to exclusively eat foods that were grown or harvested from within a 100 mile radius of their home. It was a challenge, and they shared stories about their adventures with family and friends.  This lead to a few magazine articles, which lead to the book 100 Mile Diet in 2007, then a documentary film.

"Local Food" is a complex issue with no clear definition accepted by all.  Most stakeholders seem to include:

• DTC (Direct to Consumer), where the farmer sells food directly to a member of the household that will be cooking and eating the food.
• CSA (Community Supported Agriculture), where one or more people will "hire" a farmer to grow specified foods for them, often paying in advance, and the consumer shares (or fully owns) the risk & benefits of bountiful harvests, or crop failure.
• FM (Farmer's Markets), where farmers gather at proximate locations on a semi-regular basis (eg. every Saturday) to sell their crops to interested buyers (personal, business, wholesale, etc.).

CFIA has adopted the interim policy that "Local Food" is:

• food produced in the province or territory in which it is sold, or
• food sold across provincial borders within 50 km of the originating province or territory

The inter-provincial "local food" would seem to assume a 50 km radius on each side of the provincial border, for a total diameter of 100 km centered on the provincial border,  This would allow settlements near provincial borders to continue inter-provincial economic ties, including "Local Food".

Ontario has adopted the definition that "Local" is food raised, grown, or produced within Ontario.

A big name consultant did up a report for Ontario on best practices for local food, directed at municipalities.  Is your municipality on board?  If no, why not?  What are you going to do to help get them there, and keep them there?

USDA's Economic Research Service has a nice detailed report on local & regional food in the USA.

Small Flockers support these definitions and initiatives.

We believe that poultry can and should be grown "locally", as in a neighbourhood.  Backyard chickens meet this definition.

The challenge will be access to the necessary infrastructure.  Requiring a backyard chicken farmer to ship his 4 chickens half way across the Province so that he can get a OMAFRA approved slaughter just doesn't make sense.

We have suggested mobile abattoirs that seem feasible in all aspects.

Long term, there seems to be a need for relaxed regulations that allow backyard chicken owners to kill their own birds on their own property (or perhaps at some shared community site), provided they have limited quantities of production, it is done with full disclosure to those receiving &/or eating the birds, and they follow a standard, pre-approved slaughter process.

This could be achieved by one or more of the following choices:

• Backyard chicken grower ("BCG") visits OMAFRA site, does on-line course, passes comprehension test, and becomes certified on standard OMAFRA process for slaughtering birds.  Local health unit receives a copy of the new certification so they can do inspections as required.

• BCG clicks on link from OMAFRA's site to suppliers who sell standard kits of equipment and materials needed for slaughtering equipment, makes selection, and purchases.
• BCG uses pre-approved slaughter process, self-tags resulting chickens for traceability.
• If BCG desires, they can develop their own slaughter process, have it reviewed & approved by OMAFRA, who may require micobiology testing, or on-site witnessing and approval by OMAFRA, and possibly additional terms, conditions, or restrictions.

If anybody knows any reasons why this couldn't be made to work, I ask them to post their ideas here so we can discuss tem fully.

Grinch Attacks Ontario: No Affordable Chicken for You

A review of the Tribunal's decision to reject our chicken appeal in Ontario has been completed.  The Tribunal's decision to refuse hearing our chicken appeal against Chicken Farmers of Ontario stands as-is, but the reasons change slightly.  That means:

• No relief from the #ChickenMafia's oppression of Small Flock poultry farmers, and
   
• No affordable chicken for Ontario consumers.

The OMAFRA Appeals Tribunal delivered their special gifts just in time for Christmas;
lumps of coal for 2 Christmas stockings.   Click the image for full size version.

Quite a large lump of coal was delivered to the Christmas stockings of  15,500 small flock poultry farmers of Ontario.

Unfortunately, 13.6 million consumers in Ontario get a similar lump of coal dropped into their Christmas stocking too.  Canadians pay 50% to 300% more for chicken than what the rest of the world pays; thanks to the #ChickenMafia and their self-serving rules to protect their chicken monopoly.

Chicken Farmers of Ontario ("CFO", members and leaders of the #ChickenMafia) operates their government created monopoly in favor of the 1,400 quota-holding chicken farmers in Ontario.

How is it that 1,400 quota-bearing chicken farmers can hold the entire province of Ontario hostage (all 13.6 million of us) with their self-serving rules that made these 1,400 people into millionaires, and may eventually allow them to become billionaires.  Quota-bearing chicken farmers are the highest paid farmers in Canada.

The 15,500 Small Flock chicken farmers in Ontario are small, independent, neighbourhood poultry farmers who are limited to raising no more than 300 chickens per year (enough to feed chicken to 10 people at the Canadian average rate of consumption in kg/yr).  Most Small Flockers grow less than half the permitted amount of chicken (due to the red tape, costs, and bureaucracy imposed on them by the #ChickenMafia).

The Tribunal previously decided to reject Small Flockers' chicken appeal as being frivolous, vexatious, and made in bad faith.  The Tribunal called Small Flockers out with three strikes in a row (see Blog posting Case Dismissed: The Appeal Tribunal has Spoken ).

On Oct. 24, 2014 a request was made, that the Tribunal's appeal decision be reviewed and confirmed (see Request for Reconsideration

After waiting 61 days, we now have the Tribunal's final answer, delivered on Christmas Eve.  The Review decided that the appeal stands as-is, but the reasons for refusing the appeal have been changed slightly.

Previously, the Tribunal had ruled that this appeal was frivolous, vexatious, and made in bad faith. Any one of those three deadly decisions was enough to kill the appeal dead.  The Tribunal decided to brand the appeal with all three allegations, for good measure.

With zombies, "double tapping" (ie. killing twice) helps to ensure the zombie never gets up again.  Apparently, the subject matter of this appeal was such a menace to the #ChickenMafia, the Tribunal felt it required triple-tapping to ensure the appeal was dead, DEAD, DEAD.

Contrary to the Tribunal, the Review decided there was insufficient evidence to support an accusation of being "frivolous".  The Review also found that calling the appeal "vexatious" was going too far.  Both of these two allegations were rejected by the Review process.

However, the Review confirmed the decision that the appeal was acting as an abuse of the Tribunal's processes, and/or in bad faith.  That was enough to continue rejecting this appeal.  As far as the Tribunal is concerned, this chicken appeal is permanently dead.

At this point, Ontario's Minister of Agriculture can review the Tribunal's decision in the next 30 days; rejecting it, or accepting it, or substituting the Minister's decision in place of the Tribunal's decision.

If turned down by OMAFRA's Minister, the Small Flockers' last chance is through a Judicial Review.

I am no lawyer, but it seemed to me that the appeal (and the request to review) presented some solid case law in support of Small Flockers' search for the restoration of their civil rights, and affordable chicken for the citizens of Ontario.  To twist that into a poorly substantiated allegation of frivolous and vexatious meant the Tribunal had gone way out on a limb, past the point of reasonable discretion which allowed the Tribunal to control its own processes.  It appears that the Review agreed; the Tribunal had gone too far, and the Tribunal was at significant risk of having their bias exposed and their decision overturned.  That could easily explain why they backed off during the review process.

As mentioned by the Tribunal's Vice Chair in his review decision, the case law was thin and scant for defining "bad faith".  Since "bad faith" is not well defined in the case law, the Tribunal had a wide latitude to define "bad faith" how they pleased; so they did.

The Tribunal accused Small Flockers of:

• having significant animus towards the #ChickenMafia,
   
• having a political manifesto, and
   
• having a personal political agenda.

 The Tribunal used all three of these as sufficient reasons for judging bad faith and dismissing the Small Flocker's appeal.
As an analogy for clarification of Small Flockers rights and call for justice, I ask three questions:

1. Did the Blacks in South Africa have a right and just animus towards the White Minority who persecuted the Blacks during Apartheid?
    
2. Did the Blacks have a manifesto and personal political agenda under the ANC (African National Congress), for the restoration of their civil rights?
    
3. Do the #ChickenMafia have animus towards Small Flockers, and a personal political agenda and manifesto to protect their monopoly at all costs?

Why are these reasons unacceptable and held against Small Flockers, but all three are OK for the #ChickenMafia? To me, this seems 1-sided and obviously biased in favor of the minority but powerful #ChickenMafia.
The lockers' review request raised a number of other reasons to reject the prior decision of the Tribunal.  The Review's decision mentioned these other reasons lockers requested be considered, indicating that the Review heard those additional complaints.  Any of these additional reasons could have breathed new life into this appeal if any of them had been accepted.  However, the review ignored all of these additional reasons from further consideration.  I wonder why?

The decision of the OMAFRA Tribunal Review is available here 

It appears that if the Tribunal gets its Christmas wish, the injured rights of Small Flockers, and the unaffordable chicken for all of Ontario will be denied.  Small Flockers will not enjoy their right to have their legitimate grievances heard in court.

Not only are Small Flockers rights trampled by the #ChickenMafia, the #ChickenMafia have convinced the OMAFRA Tribunal to protect the #ChickenMafia and their dirty deeds against Small Flockers.

The Plan

Here is my plan for myself and my community until we can get the abusive Supply Management regulations changed, declared illegal, or unconstitutional.

On my farm, I continue to raise my 99 laying chickens, and provide fresh, ungraded farm eggs to my community every day.  I still have my 1 (one) meat chicken as a token bird, so that I meet on an ongoing basis the definition of a chicken farmer.  This enable me to complain about the actions of Chicken Farmers of Ontario ("CFO") while my wife and I eat our way through our freezer full of our previous meat birds I produced but were unable to sell under current Small Flock Regulations.  I also have ducks, geese, turkeys, goats, and livestock guardian dogs.

I have filed a request for reconsideration of the OMAFRA Tribunal's decision on my appeal against Chicken Farmers of Ontario ("CFO").

Asking the fox to reconsider his decision to eat one of my chickens has little chance of success, but it is a mandatory step in the long, twisted bureaucratic process of Supply Management.

Under CFO's Small Flock Regulation No. 2484-2014, Section 1.(j) states a Small Flock Grower is a person, and each person can grow 300 birds per year.  Under Ontario law, corporations are persons, equal to flesh and blood persons.

I attended the recent seminar sponsored by Practical Farmers of Ontario , and heard Joel Salatin of Polyface Farms speak.  Using mobile facilities as recommended by him, I can move my entire free range meat bird operation in an afternoon from one lot to another if I need to.

Therefore I'm making plans to rent (via 2 separate companies) 2 small patches of agricultural land from other farmers/owners, and those companies will have exclusive first rights to raise chickens on those farm lots.  With my own farm, that will give me 3 separate lots.  With 3 farm lots at 300 birds per lot, is 900 meat birds in total; totally in compliance under the current Supply Management rules for Small Flocks.  These 900 meat birds will nicely serve the needs for safe, nutritious, affordable, and locally produced chicken in my local community.

Unfortunately, Section 21 of the Reg. says CFO can change the Small Flock Regulation any time they please.  I am confident that CFO will harass me and others who dare to try this plan, or CFO will invent crazy definitions and twist the interpretation of their Small Flock Regulation so as to make my plan be prohibited, or arbitrarily and unilaterally change the CFO Regulation so that my plan is expressly banned.

You might conclude that I do not have much faith or trust in CFO.

I don't.

CFO has a valuable monopoly to protect.  CFO's members are all multi-millionaires, but they wish to become billionaires.  Many of CFO members have slowly become trapped puppets who are controlled by Big Ag.

Therefore CFO will likely do anything necessary to protect their monopoly, and achieve the goals of their members and Big Ag.

I believe CFO intends to continue violating the civil rights of small flock farmers, and using CFO's monopoly as a weapon against consumers.


If there are other like minded persons who want to help implement this interim plan, or work co-operatively to prepare for CFO's retaliatory strike against all those who consider implementing this plan, please leave your comments, or contact me in private.

430,000 New Jobs for Ontario

Ontario is a have-not province in need of new, good, full time jobs.

For example, the employment rate for males in Ontario, 15 to 64 yrs. old, seasonally adjusted has been trending down for the last 38 years.  Is it time that our government react?

Here is one sure-fire method to create between 10,000 and 430,000 new jobs in Ontario, almost immediately with a 1-page letter from Premier Wynne at virtually no direct cost to the government.

As Ontario's Minister of Agriculture,  Kathleen Wynne has the authority under  Section 13.(1) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Act to issue a government directive on agriculture policy to the various agriculture boards and commissions, including the Farm Products Marketing Commission.

What do you think it would cost for 1 sheet of paper and an hour of the Premier's time to write a letter so as to create up to 430,000 new jobs for Ontario?  Let's say it's $125 for her time, and $2.00 for a sheet of paper, envelope, and stamp for a total of $127.00  which is 0.03 cents per job created.

But we're ahead of ourselves.

Let's look at three possible options available to Minister Wynne.

Option #1:  Small Flockers are Banned

Currently, everybody in Ontario can raise up to 300 meat birds per year (provided your local zoning permits raising chickens) under the small flock quota exemption.

In this option, Minister Wynne orders the banning of small flock poultry farmers and the cancellation of the small flock quota exemption.

Since small flockers are already tyrannized and oppressed, what's a little more abuse in the grand scheme of this country we call Canada?

Figure 1:   Small flock size and number in Ontario
Source:   Chicken Farmers of Ontario

Figure 1 is a chart I received that was originally issued by CFO.  It shows the number of small flocks in Ontario, and the size of those flocks. In another CFO publication, CFO states that most small flockers grow for their personal consumption, and 2/3rd of all small flocks have 50 birds or less.  However, there is strength in numbers, for there were 23,560 small flocks in Ontario in 2010, while there were just 1,026 quota-holders that produce factory farmed foul in Ontario.

Statistically analyzing this data, we determine that small flockers raised 1.005 Million birds in 2010, while quota-bearing chicken farms produced about 192.7 Million birds, so small flockers had just 0.52% of the Ontario grower market.  The average flock size for small flockers was 42.7 birds.  The average quota chicken farm raises 187,813 birds per year.  The smallest available quota farm CFO permits without special permission has 14,000 quota units, so with 6.5 grow cycles per year, the minimum factory farmed foul is 91,000 chickens per year.

If Premier Wynne ordered that small flockers were to be totally banned, the 1.005 Million birds currently produced by small flockers would need to be replaced by the factory farmed foul quota-based system, requiring an extra 5.4 average quota-based chicken factories to be built.  An extra 5 families get a job, while 23,560 small flock farmers are put out of work, for a net job loss of 23,554 jobs in Ontario.  At $127 for the Minister’s 1-page letter, that’s $0.0054 per job lost.

I’m sure CFO supports this option, giving them a guaranteed 100% monopoly, instead of the 99.48% monopoly they currently enjoy and jealously guard.  Therefore let’s call this “CFO’s Plan”.
While Option #1 is good for CFO, it isn't such a good idea for everybody else in Ontario.

Option #2:  Small Flockers are Encouraged & Set Free

Premier Wynne could instruct the FPMC to order Chicken Farmers of Ontario ("CFO") to increase the quota exemption for small flock poultry farmers from 300 to 2,000 birds per year per property address. This is what Small Flock Poultry Farmers of Canada has been lobbying for during the last year.

I suggest, so that CFO and the #ChickenMafia don't cry and whine forever, that a hard limit be set on the small flockers, with an aggregate total maximum for all quota-exempt production to be 10% or less of the total chicken produced in Ontario.  As small flockers expand in their new role, CFO would monitor it, and once the 10% maximum is reached, no more quota-exempt permits.  You can either choose to be quota-exempt, or quota-based; but no double dipping on both sides of the issue would be allowed.  The quota-based factory farmed foul would still have 90% market share guaranteed for themselves.
A 10% market share in 2010 would be 19.27 Million birds per year that would be ear-marked for small flockers.  At the historical average of 42.65 birds per average small flock in 2010, we would need a total of 454,125 small flock farms.  Since we already have 23,560 small flock farms, we therefore enable the creation of 430,461 new jobs for Ontario.

That shift of chicken production to small flockers would be equivalent to 103 quota-based chicken factories.  In 2010, 35 chicken farmers left the quota-bearing factory farm business (ie. farmers die, retire, move away, etc.), so at that rate of natural attrition, the 103 vacancies to make room for small flockers would take about 3 years to occur naturally without anybody being forced out, if we assume natural turnover.  It is highly unlikely that small flockers would expand that quickly, more likely it would take longer; possibly as long as 10 to 20 years to grow into their regained civil rights.  Therefore this attrition and transfer from quota to quota-exempt does not seem to have a logistics or scheduling problem.

What would happen if small flockers exceed this historic flock size of 42.65 birds per farm per year?
If all small flock farmers increased to 2,000 birds per year, that 19.27 Million birds allocated for small flockers would require just 9,685 small flock farms.  Since there are already 23,560 small flock farms as of 2010, that would be a job loss of 13,875 small flock jobs, for a total job loss of 13,978 (quota and quota exempt). 
If instead, we were to make this reassignment of chicken production to be job neutral, we need to keep the current  23,560 small flockers employed, plus add an additional 103 small flockers to make up for the quota-based farmers who will eventually disappear, so the quota-exemption limit should be 818 birds per year per small flock farm; which is better than the current 300 bird limit.

Therefore depending on the average number of birds raised per small flock farms, there could be an end result somewhere between losing 13,978 jobs, to job parity, to gaining an additional 430,461 jobs.  Either way, the cost to implement is $127.00 as a 1-time charge.

Option 3:  Standard Government Job Creation Systems

In a Nov. 2013 press release by Premier Wynne's government they detailed how they "leveraged" (a new politically correct way to say "spent"?) a total of $4.135 Billion to create or protect 45,000 jobs in Ontario.

That comes out to be $91,889 per job.

There's government efficiency for 'ya.

Note that these aren't all new jobs.  That $91,889 is for creating a new jobs, or keep a currently existing job.

Analysis & Conclusions

So there you have it. Premier Wynne can write a 1-page letter and create up to 430,461 new jobs for Ontario almost immediately.

CFO’s Plan:                        $0.0054        per job, with up to 23,554 jobs lost.

Premier's plan:           $91,889.00         per job, with up to 45,000 jobs created or saved

Small Flocker's Plan:          $0.0003     per job, with up to 430,461 jobs created

Sounds like a bargain to create small flocker jobs (ie. cheapest per job, most jobs created).

I guess that's why I'm not in government.  I just don't think the same way as politicians and bureaucrats.

Small Flockers are Exempt ? ! ?

On behalf of farm gate egg sellers all across Canada, I questioned and complained to Health Canada about their upcoming Guidelines which are poised to strike Canadians in Dec. 2013. See our prior Blog posting:   Help, we're under attack!

Health Canada quickly responded.  I was shocked by HC's response.  Their initial response is that small flockers and farm gate egg sales are exempt from the new Guideline.

What ??

Yes, that's what Health Canada said.  Small flockers are exempt.  Small flockers can continue selling their eggs at the farm gate.

You may not be, but I'm totally confused.  Here is what Health Canada said on this alleged exemption:

"Section 2.11 of the guidance document defines table eggs as follows:

A shell egg offered for sale to consumers (including retail environments, restaurants, bakeries, and other foodservice and institutional settings) for the purposes of consumption.

Eggs that are offered for sale at farm gates are excluded from the scope of the document. Please be advised that the guidance document does not recommend a ban on farm gate egg sales.  Therefore, the issues that you raised related to farm gate sales of eggs are not expected to occur."

Later on in their email, HC also states:

"The guidance document [focusses sic.] the recommendations on table eggs originating from regulated flocks, since these eggs represent the majority of eggs offered for sale on the table market." 

That makes sense to me, because this table egg source is more than 90% of the total eggs consumed.  Since I doubt there is a 100 fold higher probability of contaminated eggs with small flocker farm gateeggs, HC seems to be focusing their action on the overall risk to consumers.

Health Canada continues in the same paragraph:

However, there are numerous practices in place in the regulated sector that reduce the risk of S. Enteritidis in grade A table eggs, which do not necessarily extend to eggs originating from sources outside of the regulated sector. For this reason, sources of table eggs outside of the regulated sector may represent an increased risk to consumers.

Note that HC says "may represent an increased risk".  Is there proof, or is it enough to convict small flockers with just mere suspicions?

HC continues:

After the consultation, Health Canada sought additional evidence to support the increased risk of S. Enteritidis associated with eggs originating from sources other than the regulated flocks and has presented this information in section 8.3 of the revised guidance document. Two SE outbreak investigations in Canada, in 2010 and 2012, provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that table eggs originating from sources outside the regulated sector may represent an increased public health risk. The weight of scientific evidence supports that any laying flock, regardless of size, may put consumers at risk by supplying eggs for the table market from a flock infected with S. Enteritidis, and that eggs that are not stored or handled in a way that minimizes the S. Enteritidis hazard, may put consumers at risk.

The consultation referenced above seems to be the one held from Nov. 9 through Dec. 21, 2011.  This was before SFPFC (Small Flock Poultry Farmers of Canada) existed, so it seems somebody else was helping defend our interests back then.  Whomever it was, thank-you for caring and taking the effort.

CFIA now has evidence that the regulated egg producers are confirmed at having up to 11% defects (ie. dirty, cracked, expired, under sized, etc.) in their egg cartons delivered to retail stores.  The defects were alleged by other egg producers to have been purposefully done so as to punish competitive egg producers, or to obtain extra profits.  I wonder if HC included this risk in their calculations?  Can they still say that small flockers are more risky?

Even then, I'm not sure HC is talking about small flockers in the above paragraph.  Who else could they be speaking about, these "sources outside the regulated sector".  If that isn't small flockers that HC is speaking about, then exactly who do they refer to indirectly?

In Section 8.3 HC's draft Guideline refers to the use of ungraded eggs in food service establishments in British Columbia that may have caused illnesses in 2007 - 2010.  They also refer to an non-regulated egg producer who sold dirty eggs to a food service establishment.  That food service establishment had poor food handling techniques, and didn't refrigerate the dirty eggs between when they were delivered, and when they were prepared and served; resulting in 91 illnesses.

It would seem that both regulated and non-regulated egg producers could supply Salmonella contaminated eggs.  This risk can be compounded by dirty, cracked, and unrefrigerated eggs.  Either way, it puts consumers at risk. Then why does HC say small flockers and farm gate eggs are exempt from the new Guidelines? I believe it is a matter of degree of risk from these two different egg sources.  I also believe there are different expectations by consumers for these two different sources. 
 
My email response to Health Canada's current position on the alleged small flock table egg exemption was as follows:

"Thanks for the detailed response.

 I understand that HC excludes the sale and consumption of ungraded farm gate egg sales from your "table egg" definition.  That is hard to understand, as I see no justification for that, neither in the definition nor the report.  Please explain this exemption in the greatest detail possible.

For example, how does HC compare and contrast the sale of ungraded eggs at the farm gate to consumers ( eg. non-resident family members, neighbours, community members, etc.), or sale at Farmers Markets, or the sale to local convenience store who sells them to the public, or a roadside stand on the highway near but not on the farmer's farm?

Am I and other small flockers able to sufficiently rely upon the statements you make on behalf of HC, sufficient to avoid subsequent regulatory action for following your advice and statements?  In other words, what is your authority and expertise on these issues?

The other issues and comments may be moot based on the final definitive answer to the above statement."

I wouldn't rush out to make a major investment in small flock egg sales at the farm gate based on this preliminary and non-verified response.  Perhaps it was a typo by HC.  Perhaps it's a cruel joke to jerk our chain.

Hopefully Health Canada will soon clarify and justify this secret or mysterious position of exempting small flock egg sales at the farm gate.

 

Help! We're under attack.

Man all battle stations!  We're under attack.

Without provocation, a surprise attack against Canadian small flockers has been launched, from coast to coast to coast.

Unfortunately, this attack has opened battle lines on a second front simultaneous with our ongoing right to grow local, affordable chickens for food.  Small flockers have fought bravely against superior enemy forces who have attacked with neither mercy nor just cause.  A summary of the enemy's attack on Sept. 9th 2013 can be found here.

Secret Report

The diabolical public relations propaganda of the enemy has kept the fully detailed report on their vicious attack secret.

However, secret agents of the freedom fighting SFPFC (Small Flock Poultry Farmers of Canada) have infiltrated the enemy's intelligence centre, and like WikiLeaks, SFPFC has posted the full report on the enemy's war crimes. The full report on the enemy's atrocities is posted here for the world to see and witness.

It is all summed up by the scurrilous Section 7.3.3 of the enemy's new Guidelines, where we find:

"Table eggs from unregulated flocks not complying with the recommendations in this guidance document should not be supplied for the table market, but should be diverted for further processing."

By "table eggs", they mean fresh, in the shell, raw eggs sold to consumers.

By "unregulated flocks" they mean farm gate (or backyard) sale of eggs by small flock chicken farmers who are currently allowed 99 or less laying chickens in Ontario (limits vary by Province/Territory).

By "complying with the recommendations" they mean no more re-using of egg cartons, implementing HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) and passing your annual re-certification audit, implementing Start Clean- Stay Clean and passing your annual re-certification audit, proper egg washing in an approved manner, using (or building your own) a CFIA-approved egg grading station, testing and/or vaccinating against Salmonella, biosecurity separation between meat and egg birds as well as all possible contact with wild animals and birds, collecting eggs multiple times per day, temperature & time control throughout the egg's life,  labeling and traceability (forward & backward), lifetime ban from table egg sales for all layers exposed to Salmonella, and many more recommendations.

By "diverted for further processing", they mean sending 100% of your egg production for use as animal feed, or bulk eggs that get pasteurized (which sell for less than $0.566 per dozen as NR18), etc.; not enough $ to recoup the cost of the chicken feed consumed by the layers.

Unjustified Attack on the Innocent

How does the enemy try to justify their unjustifiable attack on small flock owners?  They try to use a risk assessment, and "advice" from industry experts from the monopolist millionaire egg producers who have quota.  Obviously, there is a significant conflict of interest when the quota-based monopolists Chicken Mafia advises Health Canada on the eradication of their competition, the quota-exempt small flock egg producers.

Warning Signs of their Planned Attack

There were warning signs dating from Oct. 2011 which happened long before the formation of the small flocker's resistance force, SFPFC (Small Flock Poultry Farmers of Canada).  SFPFC's forward scouts alerted SFPFC's command headquarters as soon as these plans and preparations by the enemy combatants were discovered.

Plea for Help

This plea for help will hopefully alert all friendly forces to our tenuous plight.  We pray that reinforcements will soon arrive to aid our cause.

To buy time so that SFPFC's reinforcements can get mobilized and into position, a desperate salvo against the attacking barbarians was launched yesterday.  Details of this return fire against SFPFC's attackers can be seen here.

Hopefully the war mongering aggressors don't realize the current weakness in SFPFC's defenses at this time.  Will reinforcements arrive in time, so as to adequately defend us against all subsequent waves of unrelenting attacks that are soon to strike?

As your leader of SFPFC's main forces for our ongoing battle for small flock meat birds, I am unable to single handedly defend our interests on both fronts simultaneously (ie. both farm gate/backyard eggs, and poultry meats).

I need your help.

Will somebody come to the aid of SFPFC's cause by defending against this sneal attack on our flank?

I believe new leaders will spontaneously appear once they see the desperate need, and find the courage to act.

If not you as the new leader, then who will you encourage to step up to be a new leader with you as their ready follower?

Small Flockers Blog is gaining traction

We are slowly gaining interest in our Blog and the issues discussed here.



  Keep up the good work of passing the word.  Most of us have a long list of friends in our email address book.  DO any of them eat chicken?  Perhaps they'd be interested to learn why they pay so much for chicken.

Some recommended actions to help spread the word:

• Sign our on-line petition (link in right column)
• Follow us on Twitter (link in right column)
• Share our posting on Facebook to your Friends (link in right column)
• Tweet one of our postings (link in right column)
• Subscribe to our RSS Feeds (link in right column)
• Add us to one of your Google+ Circles (link in right column)

• Recommend us on Google+ (link in right column)
• Email your friends a link to this Blog, and your recommendations to read and learn.

For those more mathematically inclined, we are doing exponential growth in the viewers of this Blog, as we must do at this stage of our life.

When dealing with exponential growth, "doubling time" is a useful concept.  Doubling Time is the time taken to double the measured quantity.  This is how bacteria grows, not that I'm comparing this Blog to a growing slime in the corner of somebody's shower stall.

The following graph shows this Blog's doubling time:



So far, we have almost had 10 doublings in the 13 days that this Blog has been alive.  Very quick out of the gate we were, at a hyper geometric growth rate (ie. an exponential of an exponential).  We have now settled into our steady pace for the marathon, currently adding 0.1 doublings every day.  To me, that's pretty good.

For this Blog to touch the lives of 8.4 million people (ie. the number of eligible voters in Ontario), we need 23 doublings to occur.  At our current instantaneous doubling rate of 0.1 doublings per day, we will need another 130 days to add an additional 13 doublings (23-10)/0.1= 130

That aggregate total of 23 doublings in another 130 days equates to a interim finish date of July 5, 2013  We'll see if we can keep up this exponential growth rate until then.  Press on, my faithful Blog Hounds, we have work to do!

For all of Canada, we'll need 35 doublings, which is 250 days at our 0.1 doublings per day, finishing on Nov. 2, 2013 at our current rate.

See, that's not impossible.  It can be done, and it won't take the rest our our lives to accomplish.  The light is clearly visible at the end of the tunnel.

Keep moving, don't ever stop.

Will We Ever Be Permitted To Become "Farmers"?

To be an official "Farmer", you have to earn $7,000 per year from your farming activities.

CFC Databook 2012 gives the Canadian average retail sale price for broiler chicken in 2011 as $5.51/kg.  The top weight for a roaster is 7 lbs, or 3.18 kg.  If a wanna-be farmer grows the maximum non-quota allotment of chicken, those 300 birds, if they are all sold at retail without 1 dead chicken, will produce a grand total of $5,259.00 per year.  Sorry, you don't qualify to be a farmer.

To be a real farmer, all we have to do is one of the following options:

• Get the average bird weight up to 4.23 kg (9.32 lbs.)
  
• Get the average sale price up to $7.34/kg, a 33.1% price increase.
   
• Get the non-quota flock exemption raised to 400 birds.
   
• Convince CFO to permit you to have just 100 bird quota.

Either way, you need to boost the system by 31%.

Was this CFO's plan, to allow wanna-be farmers to get ever so close, so close you can almost taste that roasted chicken, but never get a bite?

The demographics are killing us all.  The average age of farmers is over 60 years old.  Canada has one of the oldest median ages of the OECD countries.  In the last 25 years, the number of farmers under the age of 35 has dropped by 70%.

If it wasn't for farmers, all the rich people would have to eat is money.

We have to replace the farmers who die, retire, move on, or get injured.  As the population grows, in both Canada and the world, we may need more farmers, for their is a limit on how many hours per day you can work the fields even with headlights on your tractor.

Some think Canada has a problem in recruiting new farmers.  Some think the government needs to do something about this before its too late.

Perhaps small flock farming is a solution.  Just about anybody can learn to do it.  It can start with just a few chickens for the family's personal use.  Those who like it can decide to get a few extra for friends and neighbours the next time they buy chicks.

Assuming the oppressive 300 chicken barrier is removed, they can spread their wings and fly all the way up to 401 birds.

Before you know it, they have built an even bigger coop, and have crossed that magical $7,000 barrier.  Congratulations, you're now officially a farmer.

Finally, we can rest easy, for the decline in the farmer population has been stopped.  We have food self-sufficiency in that farmer's local community.  A food desert has been eliminated.