Campaign Strategy

Perhaps it's foolish to publish our tactics and strategies for this campaign.  However, I think we have far more to gain by building the consensus and gaining followers.

I'm lost as to how to get Supply Management from today's rickety state, to where it should be operating, in the best interest of the public.  How do we change the system without it crumbling before our eyes?  If anybody has an answer, I'm all ears. 

I believe we need to apply constant, continuous pressure with no artificial ultimatums or deadlines.

I believe the brilliant cut diamond is a model for our successful campaign.

A brilliant cut diamond has 58 facets.  Each facet is a different window looking into the diamond, each with a different point of view.  Some parts of the diamond is hidden from view in each facet, but no part of the diamond can be hidden from the views provided by all of the facets.  Each facet is unique, yet a part of the whole diamond.

In other words, we need 58 different approaches, rather than just one simple approach that could be easily deflected or dodged.

There must be no place for the government (or the special interest groups) to hide, no port in the storm where they are safe, no opportunity to rest, no relief from our friendly but persistent advocacy of our complaint and our solution.

Our hearts, souls, and actions must be totally aligned with the greater good of the public, not any personal or special interest goals.

We are here in this struggle to serve the public, not ourselves.

As Benjamin Franklin said to his fellow patriots (around the time of drafting the U.S. Declaration of Independence, when they were at risk of being hung for treason by the King of England), "We must hang together, for if we don't, we will surely be hung separately."

I think it applies here as well.

Today there is but one (me).  If I have a just cause, a clear vision, and communicate clearly, I hope to have my first follower soon.

That first follower is the bravest of all, for they will transform a "lone nutbar" into a "leader".

After that, we need to continue to grow our numbers exponentially.  During exponential growth, there is a doubling time.  With each doubling time, we gain more people than all those who previously joined.  With a population of 13.5 million in Ontario, we have 8.3 million people eligible to vote.

Starting with 1 person, we will have 8.4 million followers after just 23 doublings.

I think a week per doubling is the fastest possible rate we can reasonably expect.  That is approximately 6 months from now.  If it takes a month to double, we will be complete in about 2 years.  There is nothing to be gained by dragging this out forever.

In fact, delay sucks out our momentum, putting our ultimate success at risk.  Delaying us so that we lose momentum and stop our exponential growth is the only way the entrenched monopolists can defeat the people and their just cause.

Whether it has a doubling time of 2 weeks or 2 months, either way, the job will be done in my lifetime, for I'm only 59 years old.  If I should be taken early, I will need a Second to step into the breach.  Feel free to nominate yourself.

Chicken Monopoly Pricing

Have you been wondering why your weekly grocery bill keeps going up?

In part, perhaps it's caused by the monopolistic actions of Ontario's marketing boards.

Almost all of Ontario's chicken is produced in mega chicken factories.  These chicken producers, lead by their monopolistic marketing board, the Chicken Farmers of Ontario ("CFO"), must be doing something right.  It is truly amazing how chicken has taken over the Canadian marketplace since 1971 (see CFO`s Chart 4 below).  Unfortunately, it has been at the expense of farmers who raise beef, pork, and turkeys.

Source:   http://www.cfo.on.ca/documents/CFONewsletter-Winter2012.pdf

Typically, whenever an industry is able to increase its total production volume and their market share, this usually means that industry`s fixed overhead costs can be spread over a growing production volume, thus providing lower cost of production, and dropping prices for the consumer.  Unfortunately, Ontario chicken doesn't follow this logical and typical expectation.



Source:   http://www.cfo.on.ca/documents/CFONewsInsight-October292012_000.pdf

In the CFO`s Chat 1 shown above, the "A-80" to "A-114" scale on this graph refers to each chicken production cycle.  A chicken production cycle starts with the filling of the chicken factory with day-old chicks, then raising them to market weight over the next 8 weeks, then collecting the full-grown chickens and shipping them off to the slaughter plants).  Cycle A114 occurred in the Fall of 2012.

As you can see from CFO's own data, the cost of chicken on a $/kg basis has been steadily rising.  CFO says that the major factor that controls the price of chicken is the cost of the feed that the producers need to feed those chickens.  Note that the cost of chicken closely tracks the cost of the feed that the mega-factory chicken producers pay for the feeding of those chickens.

However, take a closer look.  Note that the two lines get closer and closer together as we go forward in time.  CFO drew this graph so that feed prices is above the chicken prices, perhaps to disguise the fact that their profit margin is rising.  That means that the price of chicken is slowly, ever so carefully controlled by CFO, is going up faster than the price of feed.  CFO sets the selling price for all chicken in Ontario.  It seems that CFO has applied the "boiling frog" methodology to maximize their market share of the meat market, and consumer acceptance of those rising chicken prices.   This data suggests that chicken producers aren't getting any more efficient, they just pass on their rising production costs to the consumer, and then add on top even more profit for themselves.

CFO summarizes Stats Canada statistics in http://www.cfo.on.ca/documents/CFONewsletter-Winter2012.pdf as follows:

• Over the last 9 years, consumers have suffered a retail price increase of 38% for fresh chicken.  In spite of this price increase (or because of it), consumers spent 5.9% more of their weekly grocery money on chicken in 2012, as compared to 2011.  In spite of this ever rising price increase, chicken sales in 2011 were also up by 4.3% over 2010.    (Ref:   op. cit.)

• Compare chicken to the cost of other fresh meat in Ontario`s stores.  Chicken prices have risen far faster than the price of beef , pork, or turkey.

• Chicken has the biggest share of the fresh meat protein market, 33.3% in 2012, so a rise in prices for chicken has a huge effect on the total grocery bill for Canadians.     (Ref:   op. cit.)
  
  
• In spite of Toronto being one of the largest markets for chicken, and being geographically close to CFO's major chicken producers and the major slaughter plants, in 2012 Toronto had to pay a 4.2% premium for fresh whole chicken when compared to the rest of Canada.   (Ref: http://www3.agr.gc.ca/apps/aimis-simia/rp/index-eng.cfm?menupos=1.01.02&REPORT_ID=116&LANG=EN&ACTION=promptReport ).

I wonder why?