Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Spent Fowl Doomsday: June 30, 2016

In my last Blog post (Chicken Mafia Causes Another Disaster) I warned about the pending doom from spent fowl imports into Canada.

Since then, I have been contacted by a few people who wanted to know where and how I came to that "crazy" conclusion that if the current trend continues, we will be buried alive in spent chicken by June 2023, killing the entire Canadian chicken industry.

They wanted proof.

My crystal ball is as foggy as the next guys.  Any time you take a limited data set and use it to project beyond the data to some unknown future, there is great potential for error.

That said, here is an updated graph and an updated forecast.  It's worse that what I previously warned about.  The revised date for Spent Fowl Doomsday is June 30, 2016.
Forecasted growth in spent chicken imports to Canada, 2005 - 2016
Forecasted growth in spent fowl imports show
Chicken Doomsday is June 30, 2016 (less than 3 years away)

Click on the graph to get a full-sized version.  Hit the "X" in the top right corner of the full-size version to come back here.

The blue coloured line is the same data from Chicken Farmers of Canada ("CFC").  The thin black line is a 5th order polynomial forecast that projects the CFC data into the future.

Notice how the blue and black lines follow each other almost perfectly from 2005 to 2012?

If this forecast curve is correct (which assumes the current trend continues), spent fowl imports into Canada will totally replace all domestic chicken production on or before June 30, 2016.

Note that this new forecast explains 99.43% of the variations in the CFC's data. The only potential problem with this forecast is that I use 6 constants in the formula with just 9 data points, so I only have 3 degrees of freedom (ie. 9-6= 3).  The more degrees of freedom, the stronger the statistical weight that the forecast is correct.

Will the current trend continue without stopping?

Nobody knows for sure, but the wise prophet Herb Stein (1916 - 1999) once said,

"Things that can’t go on will go on, until they can’t"

Herb Stein was speaking about the USA's worrisome balance of payments and trade deficits at the time.  Many people wanted somebody to do something about that worrisome trend right away.  Herb took a different view.  He was concerned about the situation, knew it meant trouble, but believed it was occurring for very good reasons.  In other words, the trade deficits were a symptom of a disease, not the disease in itself.

Herb Stein reasoned that the focus needed to be on the disease, not the symptoms.

In our case today for spent fowl imports, I believe that also is a symptom.  Spent fowl imports are a natural response to the Chicken Mafia's abuse, tyranny, and oppression of the Canadian public.  Somebody has finally found a way to escape from the evils perpetrated by the Chicken Mafia.

Since this is likely an inside job by one of the formally loyal Chicken Mafia, CFC has a worrisome case of Mafia treason.  In spite of a blood oath to be loyal to the Chicken Mafia, somebody is siding with the Canadian public while they scoop up lots of extra profit for themselves, cutting in on the Chicken Mafia's former profits and market share.

This is like the Hell's Angel battling with Satan's Choice for a turf war dispute for the Montreal illegal drug market.  Everybody else had better duck.

The fastest and surest way to stop the spent chicken imports is to stop the Chicken Mafia's tyranny.

Stop the tyranny, and the spent fowl problem will immediately and magically disappear.

It's your move, Chicken Mafia.  What will CFC decide, if anything, to do?

The Federal Government has already eliminated the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly cartel.  They ruffled many feathers doing that.  Steven Harper is big on free trade, but he couldn't figure out how to overcome the strong Chicken Mafia, and still stay in government.  The Chicken Mafia has dropped the solution into the Prime Minister's lap.  Just do nothing, and let nature take its course. The problem with the Chicken Mafia will soon implode all by itself from the Spent Fowl Disaster.  Nobody has to lift a finger to resolve the problem.

The clock is ticking.  The Sword of Damocles hangs above the Chicken Mafia's head by a single hair from a horse's tail.  Nobody knows how long that single hair can withstand rupture, and then the sword will fall.

In this case, we can be a little more certain when the sword will drop onto the head of the Chicken Mafia; in 27 months or sooner.

There is less that 27 months before we obtain relief from the tyranny and oppression imposed by Canada's Chicken Mafia.  Unfortunately, many individuals will suffer severe financial damage when the sword comes down.

Quota holder for chicken know that when you're inside the chicken factory, surrounded by thousands of birds, you must move slowly and predictably so as to avoid causing a panic in the flock.  Same goes for the Spent Fowl Doomsday; you don't want to cause a panic among potential buyers of your doomed fiefdom inside the Chicken Mafia.  However, now may be a great time to retire and sell your Chicken Mafia operation and quota to some unsuspecting newbie who doesn't read this Blog.

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