SM is Dead: Mulroney's Trial Balloon, or Loose Cannon?

In a recent speech, former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney proposed that Canada's Supply Management System be killed off.  Was Mulroney asked to launch a trial balloon, or is he a senile loose cannon that is inconsequential to the PC Goverment of today?

Former Prime Minister, PC's Senior Statesman, recommends
killing off Canada's Supply Management System

Mulroney said,

 "... I believe we should give some thought to the consideration to the careful, innovative and generous phase-out of our supply managed programs for dairy and poultry.”

Prime Minister Steven Harper is crafty.  He is a free trader, as evidenced by killing off the Wheat Board, and all the free-trade deals he has inked.  However, Harper realizes the hidden (and not so hidden) political forces in Canada.  He is under significant pressure from EU and TPP trade talks to curtail the local subsidies and protections from Supply Management for dairy, poultry, and eggs.

The Supply Management lobby, combined with their Big Ag. friends (the multi-billion agriculture multi-nationals) are very powerful special interest groups.  Harper is still responding to the fall out from nixing the National Wheat Board.  He has an election to win next year.  How many electors does he piss off by killing Supply Management?  How many consumers might benefit from cheaper food and better choices?  What to do?

No matter what Harper does now, the positive impacts for consumers from killing SM are not likely to magically appear in the next 9 months.  That means Harper would stir the pot, upset many people in SM, but would not yet generate the mid-term benefits for all consumers before Canadians go to the polls.  Now is not a good time.

Or maybe not.

In politics, it's always wise to hedge your bets.  You should always have options to pick from, for the winds of change sometimes blow in many different directions.

This is where Mulroney comes in.

If Harper can get Mulroney to propose significant change in Supply Management, and it is accepted and applauded by non-SM farmers, consumers, and the main stream media, then the PC's can take the credit, and proudly place it as one of the planks in their platform for the next election in 2015.

If Mulroney's trial balloon sinks as it turns to heavy lead, the current PC government can dismiss Mulroney as an old goat or loose cannon, who is no longer coherent, and should be dismissed and forgotten with his wild ramblings.  Either way, Harper and the PC's of today are protected and enhanced.  Mulroney gets to play visionary, with little downside risk, as SM has to go sooner or later.  If the "Kill SM" agenda is delayed, Mulroney becomes the first mainstream politician to propose it, and cements his reputation as a visionary.

Martha Hall Findlay, a former MP who ran for the Liberal leadership in 2006 and 2013, also calledfor scrapping SM.  Did she lose Leader due to this policy gaff, or did it make her a more renound candidate who unfortunately lost in spite of this visionary policy?

Either way, the tide is slowly turning against SM.

SM won't like that.  They are worried enough to already have hired a CPO (Chief Propaganda Officer) for SM's phoney messages.  As it becomes more and more bleak, SM will fight like a cornered rat.  They will not go away quietly.

It should all make for an interesting time.

Near Death Experience for Supply Management

Upstarts in the Conservative Party of Canada ("CPC") tried to upend the dogmatic support of Supply Management, a new first.  The motion to change policy was defeated for now, but the voices for change are growing, both with the party, as well as outside.  It is unknown where the growth of Anti-SM will advance the fastest, to first hit critical mass; whether within or outside the CPC.

Does the Conservative Party of Canada have a
"Fear of Change" for Supply Management?

I learned of this news item from the Chicken Farmers of Canada ("CFC") in their Annual Report for 2013, on page 39.  Therefore I'll let the CFC tell their story first, before I give my 2 cents worth.

"Chicken Farmers of Canada Chairman Dave Janzen and staff attended the 2013 Conservative Policy Convention held in Calgary from October 31st to November 2nd.

A contentious policy motion on Supply Management was brought forward in the economic policy session by the Electoral District Associations of Medicine Hat, Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont, Calgary Southeast, and Calgary—Nose Hill.  It recommended a change in wording (and policy) that would move Conservative Party support away from supply management and towards a transition to something new. The motion was opposed by the Minister of Agriculture, Gerry Ritz, and a group of Ontario MPs, including Gary Schellenberger.  Minister Ritz was the first to speak and came out very strongly against the motion.  He defended supply management and stated that it does not stifle innovation, is not a barrier to trade, and is not responsible for inflated prices.  Many other MPs also spoke in support of supply management and voted against the motion, including the Minister of International Trade, Ed Fast.  In the end, the motion was voted down 182 to 42, dying in the economic session before it could make it to the Policy Plenary Floor."

 Well!  Wouldn't that have plucked the chicken had that proposal passed.

Assuming everybody voted, there were 224 delegates in total.  If only 42 voted in favor, that's just 18.75% of them in favor of moving away from Supply Management ("SM").  Sounds like the lunatic fringe, but wait, there's more to this than meets the eye.

In reality, they are just about ready to be winners of their motion.  Here's why.

Defeat, or Almost Victory?

All great ideas start with one lunatic who asks why, then doesn't like the answer received.  That lunatic pesters and bugs, and asks more foolish questions, until somebody else sees the light of day.  Now we have a movement, for we have a leader and a follower.  When we have gained our first follower, the movement has doubled in size.  Doubling is what all great movements are all about.

The leader and follower of their movement keep pressing their issues.  Eventually, they get 2 additional followers.  They just doubled in size again.

For the CPC, they had 42 people convinced on the evils of SM in spite of the biggest guns the party coming to bear at point blank range to support SM in its moment of need.

42 votes in favor is equivalent to 6.39 doublings (eg. 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,...).  To get 50%+1 vote so as to have a majority, they need 7.8 doublings.  Therefore, in terms of doublings, which is the correct measurement for all movements that must grow exponentially or die, these lunatic upstarts are already 81.9% towards their goal.  If these lunatic upstarts tripped and fell over in the right direction, they'd be across the finish line with their majority.

Does the #ChickenMafia realize how narrowly they dodged the bullet?  No wonder they sent their biggest gun, David Janzen, CFC Chairman to the PC Convention for 3 days of schmoozing with their political masters.

Champagne Time, CFC?

While the CFC and all SM people can dismiss these people as lunatic upstarts, I'm not so quick to dismiss them.  CFC said,

"Since 2011, there has been an increasing amount of sustained and largely negative attention to Canada's supply Management System on a scale to which we are unaccustomed."

-

Maybe CFC is ready to pop the champagne corks to celebrate their defeat of the lunatic fringe.  Maybe that's why the CFC and most of the provincial SM boards have teamed up to respond to the growing tsunami against SM in Canada.  You know they're worried when CFC:

• Hire a media consultant;
• Get busy on the social media portals of Facebook, Twitter, Pinterist, and others; and
• Install a full-time person as Public Relations Officer.

Don't give up now, you 4 Alberta CPC Riding Associations, for the fight has just begun.  Those 4 upstart CPC riding associations in Alberta need to be congratulated for their effort and fortitude to go against the current policy because it's the right thing to do.

You can send these 4 lunatic CPC Riding Associations your heart-felt thanks for trying to improve things for Canadians:

CPC Electoral District Associations who lead Anti-SM Campaign

• Medicine Hat                                           medhatfedconservatives@gmail.com
  
• Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont    info@cpcmillwoodsbeaumont.ca
  
• Calgary Southeast                                    cpc.calgary.se@gmail.com
  
• Calgary—Nose Hill                                info@calgarynosehillconservatives.ca